How the Hunt Brothers Cornered the Silver Market and Then Lost it All

TL:DR: yes its long. Grab a beer.

Until his dying day in 2014, Nelson Bunker Hunt, who had once been the world’s wealthiest man, denied that he and his brother plotted to corner the global silver market.
Sure, back in 1980, Bunker, his younger brother Herbert, and other members of the Hunt clan owned roughly two-thirds of all the privately held silver on earth. But the historic stockpiling of bullion hadn’t been a ploy to manipulate the market, they and their sizable legal team would insist in the following years. Instead, it was a strategy to hedge against the voracious inflation of the 1970s—a monumental bet against the U.S. dollar.
Whatever the motive, it was a bet that went historically sour. The debt-fueled boom and bust of the global silver market not only decimated the Hunt fortune, but threatened to take down the U.S. financial system.
The panic of “Silver Thursday” took place over 35 years ago, but it still raises questions about the nature of financial manipulation. While many view the Hunt brothers as members of a long succession of white collar crooks, from Charles Ponzi to Bernie Madoff, others see the endearingly eccentric Texans as the victims of overstepping regulators and vindictive insiders who couldn’t stand the thought of being played by a couple of southern yokels.
In either case, the story of the Hunt brothers just goes to show how difficult it can be to distinguish illegal market manipulation from the old fashioned wheeling and dealing that make our markets work.
The Real-Life Ewings
Whatever their foibles, the Hunts make for an interesting cast of characters. Evidently CBS thought so; the family is rumored to be the basis for the Ewings, the fictional Texas oil dynasty of Dallas fame.
Sitting at the top of the family tree was H.L. Hunt, a man who allegedly purchased his first oil field with poker winnings and made a fortune drilling in east Texas. H.L. was a well-known oddball to boot, and his sons inherited many of their father’s quirks.
For one, there was the stinginess. Despite being the richest man on earth in the 1960s, Bunker Hunt (who went by his middle name), along with his younger brothers Herbert (first name William) and Lamar, cultivated an image as unpretentious good old boys. They drove old Cadillacs, flew coach, and when they eventually went to trial in New York City in 1988, they took the subway. As one Texas editor was quoted in the New York Times, Bunker Hunt was “the kind of guy who orders chicken-fried steak and Jello-O, spills some on his tie, and then goes out and buys all the silver in the world.”
Cheap suits aside, the Hunts were not without their ostentation. At the end of the 1970s, Bunker boasted a stable of over 500 horses and his little brother Lamar owned the Kansas City Chiefs. All six children of H.L.’s first marriage (the patriarch of the Hunt family had fifteen children by three women before he died in 1974) lived on estates befitting the scions of a Texas billionaire. These lifestyles were financed by trusts, but also risky investments in oil, real estate, and a host of commodities including sugar beets, soybeans, and, before long, silver.
The Hunt brothers also inherited their father’s political inclinations. A zealous anti-Communist, Bunker Hunt bankrolled conservative causes and was a prominent member of the John Birch Society, a group whose founder once speculated that Dwight Eisenhower was a “dedicated, conscious agent” of Soviet conspiracy. In November of 1963, Hunt sponsored a particularly ill-timed political campaign, which distributed pamphlets around Dallas condemning President Kennedy for alleged slights against the Constitution on the day that he was assassinated. JFK conspiracy theorists have been obsessed with Hunt ever since.
In fact, it was the Hunt brand of politics that partially explains what led Bunker and Herbert to start buying silver in 1973.
Hard Money
The 1970s were not kind to the U.S. dollar.
Years of wartime spending and unresponsive monetary policy pushed inflation upward throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. Then, in October of 1973, war broke out in the Middle East and an oil embargo was declared against the United States. Inflation jumped above 10%. It would stay high throughout the decade, peaking in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution at an annual average of 13.5% in 1980.
Over the same period of time, the global monetary system underwent a historic transformation. Since the first Roosevelt administration, the U.S. dollar had been pegged to the value of gold at a predictable rate of $35 per ounce. But in 1971, President Nixon, responding to inflationary pressures, suspended that relationship. For the first time in modern history, the paper dollar did not represent some fixed amount of tangible, precious metal sitting in a vault somewhere.
For conservative commodity traders like the Hunts, who blamed government spending for inflation and held grave reservations about the viability of fiat currency, the perceived stability of precious metal offered a financial safe harbor. It was illegal to trade gold in the early 1970s, so the Hunts turned to the next best thing.
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Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; chart by Priceonomics

As an investment, there was a lot to like about silver. The Hunts were not alone in fleeing to bullion amid all the inflation and geopolitical turbulence, so the price was ticking up. Plus, light-sensitive silver halide is a key component of photographic film. With the growth of the consumer photography market, new production from mines struggled to keep up with demand.
And so, in 1973, Bunker and Herbert bought over 35 million ounces of silver, most of which they flew to Switzerland in specifically designed airplanes guarded by armed Texas ranch hands. According to one source, the Hunt’s purchases were big enough to move the global market.
But silver was not the Hunts' only speculative venture in the 1970s. Nor was it the only one that got them into trouble with regulators.
Soy Before Silver
In 1977, the price of soybeans was rising fast. Trade restrictions on Brazil and growing demand from China made the legume a hot commodity, and both Bunker and Herbert decided to enter the futures market in April of that year.
A future is an agreement to buy or sell some quantity of a commodity at an agreed upon price at a later date. If someone contracts to buy soybeans in the future (they are said to take the “long” position), they will benefit if the price of soybeans rise, since they have locked in the lower price ahead of time. Likewise, if someone contracts to sell (that’s called the “short” position), they benefit if the price falls, since they have locked in the old, higher price.
While futures contracts can be used by soybean farmers and soy milk producers to guard against price swings, most futures are traded by people who wouldn’t necessarily know tofu from cream cheese. As a de facto insurance contract against market volatility, futures can be used to hedge other investments or simply to gamble on prices going up (by going long) or down (by going short).
When the Hunts decided to go long in the soybean futures market, they went very, very long. Between Bunker, Herbert, and the accounts of five of their children, the Hunts collectively purchased the right to buy one-third of the entire autumn soybean harvest of the United States.
To some, it appeared as if the Hunts were attempting to corner the soybean market.
In its simplest version, a corner occurs when someone buys up all (or at least, most) of the available quantity of a commodity. This creates an artificial shortage, which drives up the price, and allows the market manipulator to sell some of his stockpile at a higher profit.
Futures markets introduce some additional complexity to the cornerer’s scheme. Recall that when a trader takes a short position on a contract, he or she is pledging to sell a certain amount of product to the holder of the long position. But if the holder of the long position just so happens to be sitting on all the readily available supply of the commodity under contract, the short seller faces an unenviable choice: go scrounge up some of the very scarce product in order to “make delivery” or just pay the cornerer a hefty premium and nullify the deal entirely.
In this case, the cornerer is actually counting on the shorts to do the latter, says Craig Pirrong, professor of finance at the University of Houston. If too many short sellers find that it actually costs less to deliver the product, the market manipulator will be stuck with warehouses full of inventory. Finance experts refer to selling the all the excess supply after building a corner as “burying the corpse.”
“That is when the price collapses,” explains Pirrong. “But if the number of deliveries isn’t too high, the loss from selling at the low price after the corner is smaller than the profit from selling contracts at the high price.”
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The Chicago Board of Trade trading floor. Photo credit: Jeremy Kemp

Even so, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission found that a single family from Texas had contracted to buy a sizable portion of the 1977 soybean crop, they did not accuse the Hunts of outright market manipulation. Instead, noting that the Hunts had exceeded the 3 million bushel aggregate limit on soybean holdings by about 20 million, the CFTC noted that the Hunt’s “excessive holdings threaten disruption of the market and could cause serious injury to the American public.” The CFTC ordered the Hunts to sell and to pay a penalty of $500,000.
Though the Hunts made tens of millions of dollars on paper while soybean prices skyrocketed, it’s unclear whether they were able to cash out before the regulatory intervention. In any case, the Hunts were none too pleased with the decision.
“Apparently the CFTC is trying to repeal the law of supply and demand,” Bunker complained to the press.
Silver Thursday
Despite the run in with regulators, the Hunts were not dissuaded. Bunker and Herbert had eased up on silver after their initial big buy in 1973, but in the fall of 1979, they were back with a vengeance. By the end of the year, Bunker and Herbert owned 21 million ounces of physical silver each. They had even larger positions in the silver futures market: Bunker was long on 45 million ounces, while Herbert held contracts for 20 million. Their little brother Lamar also had a more “modest” position.
By the new year, with every dollar increase in the price of silver, the Hunts were making $100 million on paper. But unlike most investors, when their profitable futures contracts expired, they took delivery. As in 1973, they arranged to have the metal flown to Switzerland. Intentional or not, this helped create a shortage of the metal for industrial supply.
Naturally, the industrialists were unhappy. From a spot price of around $6 per ounce in early 1979, the price of silver shot up to $50.42 in January of 1980. In the same week, silver futures contracts were trading at $46.80. Film companies like Kodak saw costs go through the roof, while the British film producer, Ilford, was forced to lay off workers. Traditional bullion dealers, caught in a squeeze, cried foul to the commodity exchanges, and the New York jewelry house Tiffany & Co. took out a full page ad in the New York Times slamming the “unconscionable” Hunt brothers. They were right to single out the Hunts; in mid-January, they controlled 69% of all the silver futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) in New York.
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Source: New York Times

But as the high prices persisted, new silver began to come out of the woodwork.
“In the U.S., people rifled their dresser drawers and sofa cushions to find dimes and quarters with silver content and had them melted down,” says Pirrong, from the University of Houston. “Silver is a classic part of a bride’s trousseau in India, and when prices got high, women sold silver out of their trousseaus.”
According to a Washington Post article published that March, the D.C. police warned residents of a rash of home burglaries targeting silver.
Unfortunately for the Hunts, all this new supply had a predictable effect. Rather than close out their contracts, short sellers suddenly found it was easier to get their hands on new supplies of silver and deliver.
“The main factor that has caused corners to fail [throughout history] is that the manipulator has underestimated how much will be delivered to him if he succeeds [at] raising the price to artificial levels,” says Pirrong. “Eventually, the Hunts ran out of money to pay for all the silver that was thrown at them.”
In financial terms, the brothers had a large corpse on their hands—and no way to bury it.
This proved to be an especially big problem, because it wasn’t just the Hunt fortune that was on the line. Of the $6.6 billion worth of silver the Hunts held at the top of the market, the brothers had “only” spent a little over $1 billion of their own money. The rest was borrowed from over 20 banks and brokerage houses.
At the same time, COMEX decided to crack down. On January 7, 1980, the exchange’s board of governors announced that it would cap the size of silver futures exposure to 3 million ounces. Those in excess of the cap (say, by the tens of millions) were given until the following month to bring themselves into compliance. But that was too long for the Chicago Board of Trade exchange, which suspended the issue of any new silver futures on January 21. Silver futures traders would only be allowed to square up old contracts.
Predictably, silver prices began to slide. As the various banks and other firms that had backed the Hunt bullion binge began to recognize the tenuousness of their financial position, they issued margin calls, asking the brothers to put up more money as collateral for their debts. The Hunts, unable to sell silver lest they trigger a panic, borrowed even more. By early March, futures contracts had fallen to the mid-$30 range.
Matters finally came to a head on March 25, when one of the Hunts’ largest backers, the Bache Group, asked for $100 million more in collateral. The brothers were out of cash, and Bache was unwilling to accept silver in its place, as it had been doing throughout the month. With the Hunts in default, Bache did the only thing it could to start recouping its losses: it start to unload silver.
On March 27, “Silver Thursday,” the silver futures market dropped by a third to $10.80. Just two months earlier, these contracts had been trading at four times that amount.
The Aftermath
After the oil bust of the early 1980s and a series of lawsuits polished off the remainder of the Hunt brothers’ once historic fortune, the two declared bankruptcy in 1988. Bunker, who had been worth an estimated $16 billion in the 1960s, emerged with under $10 million to his name. That’s not exactly chump change, but it wasn’t enough to maintain his 500-plus stable of horses,.
The Hunts almost dragged their lenders into bankruptcy too—and with them, a sizable chunk of the U.S. financial system. Over twenty financial institutions had extended over a billion dollars in credit to the Hunt brothers. The default and resulting collapse of silver prices blew holes in balance sheets across Wall Street. A privately orchestrated bailout loan from a number of banks allowed the brothers to start paying off their debts and keep their creditors afloat, but the markets and regulators were rattled.
Silver Spot Prices Per Ounce (January, 1979 - June, 1980)
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Source: Trading Economics

In the words of then CFTC chief James Stone, the Hunts’ antics had threatened to punch a hole in the “financial fabric of the United States” like nothing had in decades. Writing about the entire episode a year later, Harper’s Magazine described Silver Thursday as “the first great panic since October 1929.”
The trouble was not over for the Hunts. In the following years, the brothers were dragged before Congressional hearings, got into a legal spat with their lenders, and were sued by a Peruvian mineral marketing company, which had suffered big losses in the crash. In 1988, a New York City jury found for the South American firm, levying a penalty of over $130 million against the Hunts and finding that they had deliberately conspired to corner the silver market.
Surprisingly, there is still some disagreement on that point.
Bunker Hunt attributed the whole affair to the political motives of COMEX insiders and regulators. Referring to himself later as “a favorite whipping boy” of an eastern financial establishment riddled with liberals and socialists, Bunker and his brother, Herbert, are still perceived as martyrs by some on the far-right.
“Political and financial insiders repeatedly changed the rules of the game,” wrote the New American. “There is little evidence to support the ‘corner the market’ narrative.”
Though the Hunt brothers clearly amassed a staggering amount of silver and silver derivatives at the end of the 1970s, it is impossible to prove definitively that market manipulation was in their hearts. Maybe, as the Hunts always claimed, they just really believed in the enduring value of silver.
Or maybe, as others have noted, the Hunt brothers had no idea what they were doing. Call it the stupidity defense.
“They’re terribly unsophisticated,” an anonymous associated was quoted as saying of the Hunts in a Chicago Tribune article from 1989. “They make all the mistakes most other people make,” said another.
p.s. credit to Ben Christopher

Megathread: President Donald Trump announces he has tested positive for Coronavirus | Part II

$FTOC: a Fintech unicorn that awaits mooning

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InfoWars’ DeAnna Lorraine Claims ‘the Left’ May Have Given Trump COVID-19 Through His Debate Mic	rightwingwatch.org
Getting COVID-19 Is Probably Not a Brilliant Ploy for Sympathy That Will Boost Trump’s Reelection Chances	slate.com
House Probe Into Trump's Failed Covid-19 Response Shows "Unprecedented, Coordinated" Political Interference	commondreams.org
This Republican senator is the early leader for worst take on Trump's coronavirus diagnosis	cnn.com
Chris McDonald ‘Wouldn’t Put it Past’ Democrats to Infect Trump With COVID-19 to Stop the Presidential Debates	rightwingwatch.org
Trump supporter potentially exposed to COVID-19 from RNC chair's visit	cincinnati.com
GOP senator on Judiciary panel tests positive for Covid-19 days after meeting with Trump's nominee	cnn.com
Today’s coronavirus news: Ontario sets new record with 732 reported cases; Trump, first lady test positive for virus; Biden tests negative	thestar.com
[Politico] Trump coronavirus diagnosis leaves lawmakers exposed	politico.com
RNC chair Ronna McDaniel says she has COVID-19, hours after Trump	6abc.com
Nancy Pelosi Says Donald Trump's Actions Were 'Brazen Invitation' to Catch COVID	newsweek.com
Trump Has Repeatedly Downplayed COVID-19. What Will He Do Now That He Has It?	buzzfeednews.com
No, Trump Isn’t Faking COVID In A Master Scheme To Vanquish Biden	talkingpointsmemo.com
Trump Could Only Ignore the Reality of Coronavirus for So Long	jacobinmag.com
Trump’s ‘positive for COVID-19’ tweet is his most ‘liked’ post ever	marketwatch.com
Trump’s refusal to wear a face mask is a catastrophe A face mask might have protected Trump — and the people around him — from the coronavirus.	vox.com
Schumer says Trump coronavirus diagnosis shows what happens 'when you ignore science'	foxnews.com
Sen. Mike Lee, who met with Trump Supreme Court pick Amy Coney Barrett, tests positive for COVID-19	usatoday.com
Nancy Pelosi says continuity of government is ‘always in place’ after Trump tests positive for Covid-19	cnbc.com
Naomi Klein: I Fear Trump Will Exploit His COVID Infection to Further Destabilize the Election	democracynow.org
PolitiFact - Trump’s health and COVID-19: Here’s what we know	politifact.com
Confusion, concern infiltrate White House after Trump’s positive test	politico.com
Putin, Who Has Spent Almost Six Months In Isolation To Avoid The Coronavirus, Sent Trump A Get Well Note	buzzfeednews.com
Trumpworld delighted in cruelty. Now that Trump has COVID, it demands empathy.	businessinsider.com
Where Trump went (and who he was with) leading up to his coronavirus diagnosis	politico.com
Biden tests negative for COVID-19, reminds folks to 'wear a mask' after being mocked by Trump for mask at debate	usatoday.com

COI disclosure: own 8,147 shares of FTOC commons and plan to add more.
In my opinion, FTOC (Ftac Olympus Acquisition Corp) can be one of the best SPAC plays in 2021 if you enter it at the right place. Here is why:
Market Capitalization
One of the key parameters of a SPAC is its market cap, it will determine how big the target can be. This is the reason when we look at PSTH, CCIV, and IPOF, we know they can have targets like Stripe, Lucid, etc. Here is a quick summary of active SPACs with at least $1.9 Billion market cap (pulled from Spacktrack as of 10:40 PM 1/26/2021, sorted by Market Cap)

SPAC	Market Cap	Status
CCIV	$6,323,850,138	Rumor with Lucid
PSTH	$5,502,002,796	No target
BFT	$3,058,765,111	DA with Paysafe
IPOF	$1,998,124,945	No target
IPOE	$1,969,231,219	DA with SoFi
FTOC	$1,911,697,949	Rumor with Payoneer

Just read this table, and you can see where my impression of "hidden gem" FTOC came from. There is only 1 SPAC with rumor AND has a larger market cap than FTOC, which is...read after me...see see ivy...
But what does it really mean: the large market cap guarantees FTOC can find a solid target even their talk with Payoneer stalls. There are quite a few fintech companies with valuation above 5 billions are waiting on the sideline: Plaid, BlockFi, etc...
The large market cap also defines the true floor of FTOC, in a day and age of IPOF with no target but trading at $15 premium, it is reasonable to speculate FTOC will not fall far below $11 in the worst case.
FTOC Team
FTOC is led by chairman (or chairwoman if we are using the right term) Mrs. Betsy Cohen. Betsy is a name tied with fintech for decades. She is the founder of Jefferson Bank, and the second female law professor after RBG on the east coast, and she owned a law firm. She has experiences all over the globe in Hong Kong, in Brazil, in Spain...Unlike many SPAC heads (looking at you Gary Cohn), she has no baggage whatsoever and just a clean trail of fabulous career.
She and her Bancorp are serial fintech SPAC sponsors, with the last merged one being FTIV (FinTech Acquisition Corp), and the next one about to IPO in several days: FTAC (Athena Acquisition). FTAC will be her seventh fintech SPACs, and you can see she is starting a Greek Mythology name convention, Olympus, Athena...The imminent IPO of FTAC also signals that FTOC is making progress...
CEO of FTOC is Ryan Gilbert, a guy with 20 years specialized in payment processing, which we will mention later why it is critical to have Ryan on board.
Rumor Target: Payoneer
We always hear about unicorn companies, but Payoneer is truly a unicorn with infinite growth potential. It is a global payment processing company focusing on B2C and C2C. Founded in New York City in 2005, it now operates in roughly 200 countries with a total of 1,500 employees spread across 21 countries. Private investors of Payoneer include CBC, Viola Ventures, Pingan (owns the tallest skyscraper in Shenzhen), Wellington Management, and others. They had 300M revenue in 2019 alone.
What makes Payoneer so special compared to other payment processors such as Paypal, Western Union, Square or even the most recent SPAC Paysafe (BFT). Well Payoneer is pretty good at establishing themselves in emerging markets such as SE Asia, India, Brazil, Africa. They have a long list of partners with big names like Airbnb, eBay, JD.ID, Shopee...
Here is the bombshell: on Jan 25th, eBay announced to all the Chinese sellers, that it will move away from Paypal and mitigate all sale payouts to Chinese sellers to Payoneer. All Chinese sellers will be required to register a Payoneer account starting in March. This news is so new it has not yet been picked up by major Western news outlets, but most biggest Chinese news outlets like Finance Sina have reported it on 1/26. Expect this to be a major catalyst once it is circulated here.
But honestly most people will look at Payoneer on their similarity to Paysafe, because of SPAC. The answer to this question is Payoneer and Paysafe are actually not quite alike. Paysafe has an emphasis on gaming and gambling. Even though they had 1 billion revenue in 2016, Paysafe was cutting employees during 2020, when you have to question how can a fintech be affected by pandemic that much? While Payoneer is hiring left and right and expanding their operation, and just had their China Summit in December. This comparison does set up the floor for FTOC if the rumor is indeed confirmed, which I expect it will not be lower than $17 (Paysafe/BFT as of 1/26).
Risk
FTOC has been trading between $12 and $13 since the rumor broke on Bloomberg in 1/20/2021. With all the short squeezes happening today, it touched lower $12 with an aboslute low day volume, while most SPACs are red and probably equally affected by GME. At the price of $12, you have absolutely minimal risk to lose, and so much to gain. As I mentioned above, FTOC will not fall below $11 even the deal does not strike, it will surely find another good or even better target. Fintech and EV are the buzz words in SPAC right now. But honestly with 97% of Bloomberg rumor confirmed, and Betsy Cohen, I would bet my left testicle this deal will go through.
The upside of FTOC depends on several factors, timing is one of them. Betsy Cohen has a very consistent history of delivering DA on time, just look at FTIV timeline:

Nov 20th. 2020: Bloomberg rumor of Perella Weinberg look for SPAC to go public
Nov 30th, 2020: Bloomberg rumor of talk with FTIV
Dec 30th, 2020: DA signed

If we expect a similar timeline for FTOC:

Jan 20th, 2021: Bloomberg rumor of talk with FTOC
Feb 20th, 2021: DA signed?

The opportunity cost is really low given you just need to hold it for less than a month, with catalysts are on the way (eBay news).
TLDR: FTOC is a large cap SPAC led by fintech old hands, with rumor target being a unicorn, and trading at a price with minimal risk.

2020 Sakhir GP Race Debrief - r/Formula1 Editorial Team

Words by showstopperNL, Felix_670, and redbullcat
Riding With Jack by u/showstopperNL
Riding With Pietro and George by u/flipjj

Links

Race Links

Live Session Discussion Threads

Pierre Gasly AMA

Italian GP race winner Pierre Gasly is dropping in to answer your questions this week, so wake sure to post them before Wednesday!
After the chaotic Bahrain GP last week and an exciting week of news of all kinds, today’s race was a highly anticipated one, and oh boy, did it deliver. So sit down and grab some snacks because this is going to be a long one.

It Begins

As the lights went out, George Russell got a great start, and jumped teammate Valtteri Bottas into the first corner. Behind them, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen almost got past Bottas too, but decided better of it and tucked in behind the Finn.
However, coming out of Turns 2 and 3, Bottas had a kick of oversteer, causing Verstappen, Sergio Perez, and Charles Leclerc to bunch up behind the Mercedes. Into Turn 4 and Verstappen, Perez and Leclerc were three wide, but Verstappen, in another demonstration of his ever improving racecraft and experienced, backed out. Leclerc braked late to overtake both of them, but did not expect Perez to take the apex, and the two collided. Verstappen went wide to avoid them, but he could not turn the car in the gravel and hit the barrier, with Leclerc soon following him into retirement. Perez managed to continue, but needed to pit at the end of the first lap to replace his now flat spotted soft tires, coming out dead last.
Additionally, the uber-experienced Kimi Räikkönen got on the kerbs out of Turn 3 and spun, flashbacks of last week’s horrific start crash certainly coming to the minds of many. Luckily, he was almost at the back of the pack and the drivers behind managed to avoid him, the Alfa Romeo recovering to take up his place at the back of the safety car queue, ahead of Perez.
The Safety Car came in on Lap 7 with Russell leading the field away, ahead of Bottas and McLaren’s Carlos Sainz. Although it was his first race for Mercedes, he was able to quickly build a gap to Bottas, stretching it to almost two seconds by Lap 10.
Further down the field, Sebastian Vettel’s Ferrari started to go backwards, with Lando Norris passing him on Lap 8, then Alexander Albon and Perez, who had made his way up from P18 on medium tires
Sainz in third after the opening lap incidents, told his team that “the deployment is wrong”, presumably losing time due to incorrect energy recovery system settings. It did not appear to be hampering him, though, as he opened a small gap to Renault’s Daniel Ricciardo.
Ahead, Bottas was struggling, locking up his tires into Turn 1 as Russell pulled further and further away, but both Mercedes were pulling away from Sainz, Bottas holding a six-second gap by lap 17.
In the midfield, Norris, Albon, and Perez were scrapping for ninth, with Albon passing Norris around the outside of Hurn 4, then Perez doing the same thing to the Thai-Brit a lap later.
Bottas had reduced the gap to his teammate down to 1.8 seconds, but could not get any closer, as Russell upped his pace and set a fastest lap on Lap 23. He then had it promptly taken away due to track limits abuse at Turn 8, with the fastest lap going to Bottas instead. Not to be outdone, Russell set another on Lap 26, extending the lead up to 2.4 seconds by Lap 28, with Bottas having a laptime deleted for track limits abuse on the same lap.

The Pit Stop Cycle

On Lap 29, Sainz started the pitstop phase by coming into the pits from third, trading his soft tires for mediums. Kvyat then pitted from sixth on the next lap, but Ricciardo received his pit call too late - as he was passing the pit lane entrance - and eventually was undercut by Kvyat for fifth.
Vettel pitted on Lap 33, but like his season and Ferrari’s in general, it was a slow stop, taking 4.5 seconds to change all four wheels.
Being the only cars in the Top 10 to start on mediums, both Mercedes would be running long, with Russell reporting from the lead that his tires were fine. Contrastingly, Bottas told his team that his fronts were starting to go off. Russell had extended the lead again, though, with it remaining at a steady 2.7-2.9 seconds.
Stroll had started on soft tires and was the last runner to pit, meaning he went 43 laps on his tires, eventually pitting from third. He emerged from the pitlane into the path of Esteban Ocon, with Stroll just managing to stay ahead into Turn 1. The two diced coming out of Turn 3, with Ocon managing to overtake his friend around the outside going into Turn 4.
Up ahead, Russell was told by Peter “Bono” Bonnington, Lewis’s his engineer, that they were going to keep extending as they did not have clear air to get Russell out into.

ROUND 2

At the halfway point of the race, Russell was still leading the race in a commanding fashion with Bottas continuing in his efforts to close the gap the Briton ahead but unable to do so. However, shortly after the first pit stop cycle, Russell came on the radio reporting a loss of engine power. This proved to not be serious and an engine mode changed seemed to sort out the issue. On Lap 46, Russell had extended as much as Mercedes deemed necessary and stopped for hard tires. Bottas went a bit longer on his tires but the overcut attempt failed and once he left the pits, he was 8.5 seconds behind the leader.
Further down, the fight between Racing Point, Mclaren, and Renault continued with Racing Point having the clear edge in overall pace. When Nicholas Latifi retired on Lap 55, the Virtual Safety Car was deployed, with Renault and Mercedes, in an attempt to combat Racing Point’s advantage, making a critical mistake by pitting Carlos Sainz and Daniel Ricciardo just as the VSC ended. This strategy would later reveal to cost Mclaren a podium and for Renault, a potential double podium. Their premature decisions played right into hands of their rivals Racing Point, who were still going to benefit from other team’s miscues later in the race in rather spectacular fashion.

Racing Point Triumph as Mercedes Throws it all Away

As Jack Aitken spun and lost his front wing, the Virtual Safety Car was again called into action before the Safety Car came out, as the situation was not safe enough for the marshals to recover Aitken’s front wing.
This triggered a flurry of last minute pitstops. These stops proved to be the last hope for some teams and the final nail in the coffin for others. Mercedes opted to double stack with Russell coming in first. They put on a set of mediums but a mix up caused Russell to be fitted with the wrong tires, which consequently meant Bottas had no tires to change and sent out in the same hard tires he had been using after what were effectively two pitstops. To make matters worse, his left front brake was on fire, which further delayed the tire changes. That meant Bottas was now in fifth place and the team’s trouble were not yet over.
Russell had to pit to be fitted with the correct tires, but things were still looking up. With a superb showing of racecraft, the young Briton was set for a podium, with a race win still in reach when Bono came on the radio to tell Russell that he had a left rear slow puncture. Another pitstop for soft tires on Lap 79 effectively ended any chance of winning, but Russell still set off in a mad dash to make up as many places as possible.
Meanwhile, Racing Point found themselves in a great position. Sergio Perez, who was having a phenomenal race, inherited the race lead as a result of the Mercedes pitstop debacle while his teammate found himself in a podium position, ahead of the charging duo of Sainz and Ricciardo. The Canadian then did his best to catch Esteban Ocon, who was now in second place.
As the fight for third in the Constructors’ continued, Russell charged through the field. With fresh tires, he was easily the fastest man on the track and during the final stages of the race, he climbed up to the points scoring positions, easily breezing past Kevin Magnussen, Kimi Räikkönen, Antonio Giovinazzi, Sebastian Vettel, and Lando Norris. Although the win and a podium was taken away from him, he could still score points for the first time in his Formula 1 career.
While Russell was steaming ahead of the soft tires, the old hard tires made things extremely hard for Bottas, as he dropped the down order even more as his rubber gave him less and less grip. He was now 8th, where he would ultimately finish the race.
At the end of Lap 87, for the first time in his career, Sergio Perez was the first to see the checkered flag, signalling his first Formula 1 Grand Prix win. He did so in style and incredible form, crossing the line nearly 10 seconds ahead of Renault’s Esteban Ocon after being in last place at the end of the first lap. Ocon also had an impressive day, taking advantage of Carlos Sainz and Daniel Ricciardo’s strategy mistakes to achieve his first podium in Formula 1, while behind him Lance Stroll scored his third podium, in unlikely points haul for Racing Point’s best day in Formula 1.

This is What it's all About

Today showed us everything that Formula 1 is about.
Triumph and tragedy present in the same race. It was a rollercoaster of action and emotion both positive, with the emotions of a race win and negative a most expressive radio message containing no words.
It gave us once a unique podium yet again, as well as a brilliant showcase of another rising talent we are privileged to see blossom in George Russell.
In the wake of this truly challenging time in history, we can be thankful that we have been treated to this incredible season of Formula 1.

Riding with Jack

Following this weekend’s coverage of the rookies, it was time to race with Williams’ Jack Aitken. After a strong qualifying performance, where the Brit was only a tenth off his teammate, it was finally time to race in Formula 1 for the first time, with 87 laps of Sakhir’s Outer Loop in store.
Moments before the formation lap, there was a slight issue with his radio, but it was fixed quickly and as Aitken could now hear James Urwin loud and clear, they briefly went through the situation around them regarding the tire choices of Norris, Magnussen, Pietro Fittipaldi, Giovinazzi and Räikkönen.
As the formation lap started, Aitken gave himself plenty of space for a practice start, revving up the engine and testing the clutch slip. After that, the usual formation lap procedures were followed, going through all the gears, weaving to get temperature in the tires, with six rear wheel burnouts before carefully lining up on his grid box.
Lights go out and Aitken has a decent getaway, with Norris immediately pushing his way through. Aitken was careful into Turn 1, letting off the throttle nice and early, which helped the rookie stay out of trouble as the chaos unfolded in front of him.
Räikkönen spun off to his right and 500 meters later he was in the middle of the pack as the Leclerc incident happened. Furious racing continues until the Safety Car is called, cars were all over the place as they all tried to navigate through the chaos.
Throughout the Safety Car phase, Urwin kept updating Aitken about the temperatures and settings he could use to aid it. As Bernd Mayländer pulled off and released the field again, both Giovinazzi and Aitken were caught sleeping, giving Magnussen and Latifi ahead some space to battle it out. The rookie again kept his nose clean as Perez made his way past the back of the field.
As the Racing Point overtook the Alfa Romeo ahead, Aitken thought he had a prime opportunity to overtake Giovinazzi, but the Williams oversteered and slipped over the kerbs heading out of Turn 2, letting Räikkönen through, but not for long. One lap later, Aitken had a better exit out of Turn 2 and overtook Räikkönen with a very smooth move, similar to the one Perez pulled on Albon. The beginnings of a very solid race pace had begun to appear, as the gap to the Finn increased up to 5 seconds and the pressure on Aitken relented.
As Giovinazzi and Williams teammate Latifi overtook Magnussen, the Brit set his sights on the Haas ahead, with Urwin giving almost a corner-by-corner analysis on where he could gain on the Haas. Lift and coast into Turn 1, while using some more on exit of Turn 10 being the two main points Urwin pressed on Aitken. Unfortunately, his efforts would not end with an overtake, as Magnussen pulled in for his pitstop. He was able to carry on until Lap 31, before coming in for his first F1 pitstop. It all went without a hitch, and he came out on fresh hard tires, 1.2s ahead of the Alfa Romeo of Räikkönen and 6.5s behind the Haas of Magnussen. Staying out longer seemed to work out nicely for the rookie.
Now came a period of driving in no man's land as from his pit stop on Lap 31 until Lap 46 he had no threat from behind and nothing in sight in front. However, as the tricky blue flag period arrived, the first car to came through was the regular driver of Aitken’s car in the form of George Russell, with his race engineer taking extra care in keeping Aitken informed as the leaders came through. A new phase of the race started when a Virtual Safety Car was called for Williams teammate Latifi’s stricken car. This gave Aitken the opportunity to pit for new mediums, but it was not great timing as the track was cleared while the rookie was in pitlane, which meant that after this stop, he was 9s behind Magnussen.
Just as he was told to speed up to a delta of 57.4, Aitken suffered his accident. The Williams crew reacted quickly and did a good job to get ready for his stop. During the Safety Car period that followed, Aitken unlapped himself and got ready for the final sprint. As the field got going and the Brit managed catch the up to the back of Fittipaldi and, with some help from Urwin, Aitken got into DRS range and started attacking. The Brazilian in the Haas defended well the first time around and then looked like he would manage to get away. It took Aitken 13 laps before he finally overtook Fittipaldi for 16th place. In the end, he did not have enough pace to to catch Magnussen, but had a very competent drive in his first F1 race.

Riding With Pietro

In his first Formula 1 race, Fittipaldi started last due to the carry over penalties from Romain Grosjean’s accident. The young Brazilian showed his quality from the start, avoiding both incidents ahead and taking Kimi Räikkönen’s position. With Sergio Perez pitting after contact in Turn 4, Fittipaldi was P16 behind the Safety Car.
Dominic Haines was very helpful while the race was neutralised, coaching Fittipaldi on the rules and procedures to make sure there were no unpleasant surprises. At the restart, Fittipaldi could not challenge Aitken ahead and Perez was quick to come through to take a position away from him soon thereafter.
A few laps later, he found himself harassed by Räikkönen as well, eventually losing P18 to the experienced Alfa Romeo driver, the Haas clearly not particularly well-suited for the high-speed track. Fittipaldi did manage to stay close to the Alfa for a few laps, however, but without managing to find a way past Räikkönen.
Even when the Finn made a mistake into Turn 1 in Lap 20, Fittipaldi did not have the pace to hold on to him and make a move. Both Ferrari-powered cars were steadily dropped by Jack Aitken in the Williams ahead, and, as Lando Norris came through after his first pitstop, Fittipaldi was finally given a clear track ahead as the Alfa ahead also pitted. At this point, however, Fittipaldi was almost 7 seconds behind Aitken and could not get any closer to the Williams.
Throughout the race, Haines was careful not to overburden his driver, letting him find a rhythm at that start, getting comfortable with the situation before demanding anything more that small changes when Fittipaldi was in the straights.
A lonely phase of the race followed, with Fittipaldi alone on track, trying to chase down Aitken ahead but without the pace to do so, as he was around 0.5 slower per lap than the Williams ahead. As the pitstop phase unfolded, Fittipaldi climbed up the order, but with the cars behind on fresher rubber, it was only a matter of time before he resumed his position in the back of the pack.
On Lap 31, the leader came around to lap him, with Fittipaldi in P14 at that time, Bottas coming through soon thereafter. Haas then called in Fittipaldi for a pitstop, coming out with medium tires on. The longer stint on softs while the Alfa ahead had changed its mediums for hards 8 laps earlier caused Fittipaldi to lose touch with Räikkönen, the rookie driver setting off in a lonesome second stint trying to bridge that gap.
His pace was good, lapping in the same range as his teammate, but Räikkönen had the same pace and so the gap was kept in place, relegating Fittipaldi to a sequence of laps with no one around him.
Watching him negotiate the track with no one around was an interesting exercise. He is clearly a competent driver, making no big mistakes and holding a decent pace over his second stint, even if he was indeed unable to close Räikkönen down. Haines was given correct and useful feedback during this time, especially regarding the balance of the car, and it is clear that the third generation Fittipaldi was not out of his depth this weekend.
Called into the pits during the VSC for Latifi’s DNF, Fittipaldi was given used softs and set off again, but he was now more than 40 seconds behind Räikkönen. He gained a lot of time on the Alfa Romeo before another VSC (and a SC) was called for Aitken’s lost front wing. He was called in for a pitstop for soft tires before another stop for a different set of softs a few laps later, meaning Fittipaldi had to push hard to catch the pack again so he could unlap himself and hope he could reach Räikkönen before the Safety Car released the field.
Again, Haines was crucial to the procedure, helping Fittipaldi understand what he had to do. The young driver did not let the chance get away from him and pushed hard to find himself right behind Räikkönen as the race was back to green (with Aitken behind him).
At the restart, Fittipaldi was not close enough to mount a challenge on the Alfa Romeo ahead, but he did keep Aitken behind him. As the laps went by, the train that reached up to Pierre Gasly started to spread and Fittipaldi was chasing Räikkönen while Aitken tried to catch him, but ultimately he could not get past Räikkönen and that meant Aitken kept creeping closer, eventually getting past on Lap 82.
As if to highlight the usual lack of pace of the Haas as races progress, Magnussen was passed by Räikkönen and finished just 2 positions ahead of his rookie teammate, and if the race had a few more laps, Aitken would probably have found a way past Magnussen as well.
Haines was again extremely congratulatory after the end, noting that Fittipaldi had similar pace to Magnussen all race, with the driver responding that he learned a lot and will be better in the next race. Even if it was a rather disappointing result, there is little doubt that Fittipaldi will be elated at the end, having finally reached his dream and taking part in a Formula 1 race.
A great day for Pietro, for the Fittipaldi family, and for Brazil, seeing a driver carrying the flag for the first time since the end of 2017.

Riding With George

Starting from the dirty side of the grid, George Russell needed to match his perfect starts from practice to hold off what was sure to be a hard charging Max Verstappen.
After plenty of DAS usage and heavy braking on the way to the grid, the front-runners were re-forming the grid while the last cars were still in Turn 9, which meant a long wait for the lights to come on and go out.
Once everyone was set and Michael Masi unleashed the field, Russell had a great start and reached Turn 1 side by side with Valtteri Bottas, pushing his teammate to the side and taking the lead. A wiggle for Bottas had him surrounded by Sergio Perez and Max Verstappen going into Turn 4 while behind them chaos was again unleashed after Turn 3 and, this time, into Turn 4 as well.
The mess into Turn 4 knocked Verstappen out of the way, which meant the only non-Mercedes thread out of the race, all that was left was to see which of the Black Arrows would negotiate the Outer Loop better, especially in keeping their medium tires in good order, as no team could beat them. At least, that is what it seemed, but if the 2020 season has proven anything is that, other than who wins the championships, nothing else is certain and the Sakhir GP was not different.
Peter “Bono” Bonnington had a funny message for Russell as he followed the Safety Car around, telling the young driver to “continue DAS-ing”, which he kept doing until the Safety Car peeled into the pits at the end of Lap 6. Bono was quick to remind Russell about the procedures for a good restart (including energy usage) and as Russell punched the throttle at the halfway point of the last straight, his lead was safe. As Carlos Sainz pressured Bottas into Turn 4, Russell scampered away, in a restart performance reminiscent of the usual occupant of the car, crossing the line already one second ahead of Bottas and seemingly in command of the race.
Bono, as is his wont, put Russell at ease with little information at the start, allowing the driver to find his groove, while behind him Bottas managed to shake off Sainz and started trying to reel in his teammate. But Russell was up to the challenge and a stalemate developed between the Mercedes with the gap fluctuating in the 2 to 2.5 seconds range.
Bono kept Russell informed throughout, calling out Bottas’ lap time and the gap, and Russell kept putting in near identical laps to hold Bottas at bay. And, in a message that would sound like music to Russell’s ears, Bono told him, on Lap 22, that degradation looked lower than expected.
Russell then questioned Bono about Bottas’ kerb usage, saying he could go faster by being more aggressive, a move that was OK’ed by Bono. As he upped his pace by 0.1, pushing Bottas over the 2 second range again, the other Mercedes unable (or perhaps unwilling) to mount a serious challenge for the lead.
Soon thereafter, however, Bono asked Russell to back of the kerbs a bit, as he had increased his lead to 2.5 seconds and the Mercedes is famous for not enjoying kerb rides for too long.
As the pitstop phase unfolded, the Mercedes were still doing competitive lap times compared to the cars behind, having started on the more durable compound and, there was every indication that they would hold their positions once their time to change tires came.
In a display of his maturity, on Lap 40, as Bono told him they were going to keep extending, Russell asked about the gap to P3 (Perez at the time), understanding that he would need to have a window in which to pit and not lose any positions, if possible, before getting new rubber.
He got the call to push on Lap 44, as the tires were starting to lose performance and the time to pit had arrived. Russell had a 30-second advantage over Perez at that point and a move to hard tires signalling the team’s intention to make the race with only one stop.
Purpling the last two sectors in his outlap and then purpling all of them in the next go around (for a 56.644 fastest lap) as Bottas carried on without pitting, Russell looked to be safe from an overcut and in command of the race, even if Bottas would have fresher tires at the end.
Retaking the lead on Lap 50 as Bottas pitted for hard tires as well, Russell found himself with an 8-second lead to the other Mercedes, the gamble on a longer stint for Bottas clearly not paying off.
With 35 laps to go, what would Bottas have in store to fight for a win that most people considered to be a lock when Lewis Hamilton’s Covid-19 diagnostic came out?
At the start of Lap 55, a troubling message, as Russell asked Bono to check if there was a problem with the power. The multiple world champion engineer reported that all was well, but they still changed the strat mode, just in case. His pace seemed OK, and it looked as if the car was OK. Sadly for Russell, his next issue would not be so easy to solve.
A quick VSC due to Latifi’s retirement helped Bottas reduce the gap to 5.6, but Russell still seemed to have enough pace to hold the other Mercedes well behind him. Showing once more why they have not lost a championship since 2014, the team never panicked, Bono kept Russell calm and focused, the steady stream of laps in the same pace helping him maintain his lead, before Bottas set the fastest lap with a blistering 56.613 on Lap 60, gaining 0.3 to Russell.
Given the hurry up (and told that his main loss was braking into Turn 10), Russell responded with a 57.158, which was 0.4 faster than his teammate, pushing the gap back to 5.6 before a VSC was declared again due to debris on track at Turn 11, before the Safety Car was sent out to allow recovery of Aitken’s front wing, Mercedes taking advantage to put Russell on used mediums (and bringing Bottas in for a stop as well). And this is where things took a very un-Mercedes turn.
A radio failure caused Russell to come out with mismatched tires and he had to come in for another pitstop. Even with the extra pitstop, Russell was still in a decent position to challenge for the race win, now running in 5th place, behind Bottas, who had to carry on the hard tires he had on previously, since Russell had left with his tires. In one double stack, the team had wrecked both their drivers’ races.
With 24 laps remaining, this set up an interesting end to the race, as Russell had a tire advantage to his teammate, and they had a Mercedes advantaged over Perez, Esteban Ocon, and Lance Stroll ahead.
At the restart, we almost had a repeat of Mugello between the front-runners, but Russell was far enough to not be bothered by it, even if it also meant that he was not close enough for a move into Turn 1 or 4 to get past Bottas.
On Lap 70, Russell put in a beautiful move through Sector 2 to get past Bottas and set off to chase the cars ahead. In a part of the track where overtaking was thought to be an extremely risky move, Russell positioned his car perfectly, took advantage of better tires, and left Bottas behind, an overtake reminiscent of the moves seen from Mick Schumacher in the Formula 2 races earlier in the weekend.
Two laps later, he took Stroll’s third place into Turn 1, and was immediately within DRS range of Ocon ahead, getting past the Renault one lap later braking for Turn 4. With Perez now within striking distance, Russell pushed, Bono gave him a different strat mode to use, and Perez was looking like an easy target for the freight train barrelling down on him.
Russell pushed hard, lapping about 0.4 faster than Perez and the only question seemed to be if there would be enough laps for him to get past the Racing Point to ensure that his first points would add up to 26 before it all came crashing down. The heartbreak comes on Lap 78, with Bono telling Russell that his left rear tire is punctured. The pain and frustration on Russell’s voice unmistakable as he is called into the pits, knowing that a victory that seemed assured was now gone.
Coming out in 15th place with less than 10 laps to go, even soft tires on the best car on the grid were not enough to salvage the day. Bottas also dropped down the order as his hard tires had lost all performance and what was looking like another Mercedes dominating 1-2 had suddenly turned into a disaster for the squad.
A string of fastest laps to close out the race pulled Russell to 9th place, guaranteeing his 3 first points in Formula 1 (he added one for fastest lap) but it is doubtful that they will be enough to remove the pain of losing what was a sure-fire win, there being no question that his first race for Mercedes ended as an overwhelming frustrating one.
Bono, then James Vowles, then Toto Wolff, they all congratulated Russell on a job well done, Bono remarking that Russell showed his mettle throughout the day (throughout the entire weekend, actually), but nothing will be able to erase the pain of losing a win in this manner.
In a day of elation for Racing Point, for Ocon, for Aitken, and for Fittipaldi, Russell’s fate is surely a very cruel result.

r/CoronavirusDownunder random daily discussion thread - 05 February, 2021

What is the "Normal" approach to investing when $GME- & $AMC-chaos isn't happening?

Hello! Welcome to /StockMarket
These are some pretty amazing times and most of the stock market is in upheaval as of right now. Between Gamestop, AMC, Nokia, Blackberry, and the other stocks in the spotlight, the communities (Wallstreetbets, /stockmarket, financial Twitter, and many more) are growing faster than the equities are. We are getting 1000s of new users every hour right now. Perhaps you are one of them. A long time ago I wrote an intro for newbies here, which I have revised and wanted to repost for you.
I also encourage you to check out ghostofgbt 's amazing GitHub for a ton of guidance. It should be $$$, but amazingly it's there for the taking: THE ULTIMATE STOCK MARKET TOOLKIT

How to start investing normally, when the markets are not in upheaval?

Welcome to the fantastic world of investing where there is infinite to learn and infinite to go. The problem with advising on finance is that there is not a proven system that works. You need to find what works for you and work with that. First of all, I would recommend searching around on the financial subreddits for new people posts and reading them. The question has been asked thousands of times, and there are tons of amazing answers. Otherwise, here is my short-take.

In finance, you need to read. That is how you learn, how you get information, how you find out new developments in the market. All of the information. Books, news, financial statements, press releases, and earnings calls. Read everything. You will find hundreds of words you don’t understand, so look them up (Investopedia has a majority of them). In the beginning, you will struggle, however, as time goes by, you will start to understand. If you do not like reading, learn to like it. There is no way around this. If you find yourself investing without reading tons, you are going to lose.
_______________________________________________________________________________
Reading
I recommend reading the 10Q document (hard), conference call transcript (easier), and the shareholder's presentation (easiest) of your favorite public corporation. You can find it on their respective investor relations page. Other than that, without exception, anyone attempting to understand the huge complex thing called the stock market, I heavily recommend reading “One up on Wall Street” by Peter Lynch. It is a true masterpiece, and it is very easy for a newbie to read. Enjoyable, teaching, and fantastic. After that, I recommend The little book on Common Sense Investing by John Bogle (best book on funds), and while not a finance book, Mindset by Carol Dweck is a must-read to understand success and failure.

Doing
Then after you have started learning, it is time to start doing. As you start, you should consider two things. Indexing or stock picking. 90% of people should own indexes, but people truly interested should look to specific stocks.

Exchange-Traded Funds
These are ETFs like $VOO, $VTI, $VWO, and $VOOG, and is a way to take on the least amount of risk while still gaining along with the market. You get a wide basket of stocks, focusing on things like the S&P500 ($VOO), which is an index of large (minimum 6.1 billion USD) US companies. Historically, you can expect a 7% annual gain here on average (some years might be up much more, or even in the red). That’s realistic. Anything offering much more than that without risk has tons of risk without disclosing it, per definition. $VOOG indexes growth companies, focusing less on the giants and more on the up and coming. $VWO focuses on emerging markets, getting places like brazil, Russia, and all over Asia. Indexing is by far the best choice, and will very often provide you a steady growth. If you disagree with this you must get John Bogle's take on it, the founder and former CEO of Vanguard. The best way to do this is in the book recommended above. The final and great choice is $VTI, which is the global basket that contains the market as a whole. It will never be a mistake, even if performance may vary.

Stocks
Buying individual companies through common stock is much harder, and the process is really tough. To put yourself into that, you need to be ready to put in some serious work, and the process is much more complicated than I could explain here. Here is a Due Diligence (DD for short) checklist to evaluate a company. That said, it is simplified to the point of worthlessness really while being a start. Before you decide if you should own a company or not, you must know these things:

What does the company do?
How do they earn money from that?
What is the edge or competitive advantage of the company?
What prevents someone else to just out-compete them by spending more money?

How are they priced now?
What does their stock costs, and what does that make their valuation (Stock price * Number of shares = Market cap (company market value))
What does that market value imply?
If they are high priced, high growth & returns are expected. Is it likely that they will complete that or even do better? This is what would move the stock price.

What are the company's competitors?
What makes this company a better pick than the competitors?

Understand their balance sheet!
What is their net cash?
How leveraged are they?
Is inventory increasing or decreasing (inventory increasing faster than sales is a horrible sign)?
How solvent are they?
What's their book value?
What do these numbers actually imply about the company?

Think about growth and developments!
How does their best-case scenario look?
Same for the bad scenario, good scenario, worst-case scenario, and realistic scenario. How likely would you say each scenario is? Try to find facts to back your hypothesis up!

Questionaire

Lastly, and honestly most importantly, here is a list of things you should ALWAYS be able to answer before buying security, equity, or derivative:

Why am I getting this instead of an index? Where is the upside?
If the stock goes up, what action do I take? When do I sell? At what price or % gain.
If the stock goes down, when do I sell? At what % loss or a price.
What risks are there? How does the worst-case realistic scenario look like?
Why am I making this investment right now? Is there a better time?
What exactly am I buying?

And finally, always, without exception, perform your own due diligence. Don’t take advice from other people without understanding the situation yourself. I never advise on what to do, I make it a rule to just spread my viewpoint & strategy. If you have to ask the questions, you should not own the equity. Ask about what you do not own. If you have to ask questions about equity you already own, you have messed up. Try to not mess up again.

**Oh.** Remember, you will get cocky. You will get greedy. We all do. Everyone thinks they can do it all and make the cash rain. WHEN that happens (not if), make sure you follow your system, because, without the system, you will lose over time.
Comment: This last comment is especially valuable in these times. The fact is that while I loooove this craze of GME, BB, NOK, Reddit & hedge funds, in the end, there will be thousands and perhaps even millions of people on both "sides" that will lose a ton. It's simply the nature of things. So don't invest what you can't afford to lose. Don't burn your inheritance. Don't gamble your tuition money. Don't do things you aren't comfortable with. Be smart. Invest. Good luck!

Welcome to the markets.

lykosen11

PANDEMIC UPDATE - 26 January 2021

UPDATE – 26 January 2021
COVID has been in Canada for one year now.
The strange case of the CEO in disguise to get vaccine for himself.
COVID-19 tax tips.
COVID-19 and the world of work – the International Labor Organization.
A breakdown of cases among healthcare workers.

If you’re having trouble regulating life while working from home, the fake commute might be for you, have a look: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/18/success/fake-commute-meaning-benefits-pandemic-wellness/index.html
“For the many who have been doing your part, you may be asking, what more can I do? Be the voice of support and encouragement for those who may be wavering in their resolve.” – Dr. Bonnie Henry.
Feel free to share this post, or copy and paste, in whole or any part of it.

LOCAL:
· 82 cases among New West residents in the previous week.
· No new school exposures in New Westminster since that of the Queensborough Middle School on January 11th.
· Current outbreaks: Royal City Manor, declared Jan 21; Royal Columbian Hospital, declared Jan 20.
· The Rio Theatre in Vancouver has converted into a sports bar.
· The theatre is dealing with a full closure of movie theatres. But as restaurants and bars can remain open with safety protocols, the theatre is seeking other ways to do business. The move does show that the Rio cannot do business as a theatre right now, but can meet the safety requirements to operate as a sports bar.
· There are differences though. The theatre has to actually meet the requirements for a bar, such as taking orders from people’s seats rather than allowing a line-up at the concession.
· The move has stirred controversy, with some decrying the Rio as finding a loophole while the basic lay-out is still that of a theatre, with narrow entryways and tiny washrooms. Others welcome the move as innovative, a way for a theatre to survive during the closure.
Sources: CBC, Global News, Fraser Health

PROVINCIAL:
· The strange case of the CEO in disguise.
· Vancouver couple Rod and Ekaterina Baker were fined $575 after sneaking into the Yukon to try to get the vaccine for themselves.
· The couple posed as local motel workers.
· The clinic at Beaver Creek normally has one nurse and a receptionist, but a team of six was flown in to do vaccinations. Beaver Creek was chosen because “of its remoteness, elderly and population, and limited access to health care,” said Chief Angela Demit of the White River First Nation in Beaver Creek.
· The story of the wealthy executive trying to get vaccine intended for remote elderly First Nations people has not gone over well.
· Rod Baker is the Chief Executive Officer of Great Canadian Gaming, since 2011, where he earns $900,000 per year as salary, but last year also made $45.9 million from company stock options.. The company announced his resignation yesterday. The gambling company cited it’s “core values.” Ekaterina Baker is an actor, but not apparently a good enough one to fool Yukon officials. The couple chartered a flight to the Yukon.
· “We had not been imagining that someone would go to this length to mislead or deceive.” John Streicker, Yukon’s Minister of Community Services.
· The manager of the 1202 Motor Inn, where the couple claimed to work, was also rather upset. “That’s a risk (serving travellers) that we take – not a risk that somebody enforces upon us because they are too ignorant.” Staff at the Beaver Creek clinic found the couple suspicious, and phoned the motel to check on their story. While at the clinic and pretending to live and work in town, the couple rather oddly asked if anyone could drive them to the airport afterwards.
· Story from the Globe and Mail: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-great-canadian-gaming-ceo-resigns-after-being-charged-in-yukon-ove?utm_medium=email&utm_source=Coronavirus%20Update&utm_content=2021-1-25_19&utm_term=Coronavirus%20Update:%20Great%20Canadian%20Gaming%20CEO%20resigns%20after%20alleged%20botched%20disguise%20as%20Yukon%20motel%20worker%20in%20attempt%20to%20get%20COVID-19%20vaccine&utm_campaign=newsletter&cu_id=czq7hF%2BueFDcmmCKozRUQ1bduJl6paGe
· Ekaterina Baker is known for acting in productions such as Chick Fight, Fatman, The Asset, and The Comeback Trail, and as producer of Big Gold Brick.
· IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/name/nm9698063/
· BC has adopted a four phase vaccination plan.
· Phase 1, December to February: Residents, staff, essential visitors with long-term care and assisted living; people waiting for long-term care; people in remote Indigenous communities and hospital workers caring for patients with COVID-19.
· Phase 2, February to March: Seniors over 80; Indigenous seniors over 65, Indigenous elders; more health-care workers; vulnerable populations and nursing-home staff.
· Phase 3, April to June: Members of the general public aged 60 to 79.
· Phase 4, July to September: Members of the general public aged 18 to 59.
· Premier John Horgan says the plan is based on those who get most sick, and those most likely to die, so priority goes to the elderly and vulnerable, and those who work around them.
· The Premier said multiple groups argued that they were front-line workers and so should get priority. But with vaccine supply limited, it didn’t seem to make sense to vaccinate people on the basis of their job, like being a front-line worker, ahead people ahead of seniors or those more likely to be hospitalized or to die. Health care workers are not only the most likely to be exposed, but they also work with and have direct contact with patients and the vulnerable.
· Here is a good article with the numbers and the rationale behind the priorities: https://www.newwestrecord.ca/local-news/opinion-elderly-should-get-covid-19-vaccine-before-bc-teachers-3291898
· The dates might vary, depending on supply.
· Covid cases in BC have plateaued to an average of 500 per day.
· Dr. Bonnie Henry said that the number is still dangerously high. “For the last few weeks, we have plateaued at 500 new cases. This is too many. We are at a precipice. The virus continues to circulate in our communities. We are at the threshold of where we were in late October and November when cases started to rise.”
· “Over the next two week, I believe we can bend our curve. Not just plateau, but bend it back down…. More than you’ve done before, stay home, stop social interactions.”
· B.C. will receive no new doses of vaccine over the next two weeks. It is not sure how much will be received in February.
· Over the past three days – Saturday, Sunday, Monday:
· 1,344 new cases. 618 of those in Fraser Health. 527 reported on Saturday, 472 on Sunday, 346 on Monday. 64,828 cases to date.
· 26 new deaths. 1,154 total.
· 4,392 active cases.
· 57,831 recovered.
· 11 outbreaks in long-term care declared over.
· 6 cases of the UK variant in BC, 3 cases of the South Africa variant. No community transmission of the UK variant, but the South Africa variant cases are not connected to travel and are being investigated. Dr. Henry: “I’m very concerned. I’m concerned that if those variants start to spread, it’s just going to make our job that much more difficult.”
· 119,850 doses of vaccine administered to date.
· New numbers for Tuesday:
· 14 new deaths. 1,168 total.
· 407 new cases. 65,234 total. (Comparison: a high of 911 cases happened for Nov 27).
· 313 hospitalized, 71 in intensive care. (A high of 381 were hospitalized on January 6th).
· 4,260 active cases.
· 6,450 in self-isolation.
· 58,352 recovered.
· 122,359 doses of vaccine administered to date. 4,105 are second doses.
· No new outbreaks, one outbreak declared over.
· Dr. Bonnie Henry: “For the many who have been doing your part, you may be asking, what more can I do? Be the voice of support and encouragement for those who may be wavering in their resolve.”
· New restriction may be necessary if the number begins to climb again.
· 4,850 cases among health care workers, from January 2020 to 15 January 2021. About 8% of cases.
· From January to December 17th 2020, care aides had the highest number of cases among healthcare workers at 1,193 or 24.6%. Nurses were second at 833 or 17.2%. Below are the ten highest number of cases by healthcare worker category.
· 1,193 – care aids.
· 833 – nurse.
· 304 – licensed practical nurse.
· 280 – administration.
· 177 – housekeeping.
· 156 – dental professional.
· 151 – physician.
· 149 – kitchen staff, dietary aid, food services.
· 91 – occupational therapist, physiotherapist, respiratory therapist.
· 75 – student.
· The document is here: http://www.bccdc.ca/Health-Info-Site/Documents/COVID_sitrep/COVID19_healthcare_workers_2021_01_15.pdf
· BC has has opened 3 clinics for people with longer term Covid symptoms.
· Located at St. Paul’s Hospital, Vancouver General, and the Outpatient Care and Surgery Centre in Surrey.
· Some people still have symptoms months after the start of the disease. Of patients who were hospitalized in BC, after three months half still had breathing issues. About 20% have permanent lung scarring.
· The St. Paul’s clinic already has 160 patients.
· Nanaimo Regional Hospital has had an outbreak.
· Two staff and a patient tested positive.
· Limited to the 4th Floor on the east wing.
· A homeless shelter in Surrey has had an outbreak.
· 2 staff and 24 clients test positive.
· The Surrey Emergency Response Centre was set up to make more shelter available to homeless people during the pandemic.
Sources: CBC, New Westminster Record, Globe and Mail, BC Centre for Disease Control.

NATIONAL:
· Worked from home during Covid-19? Be sure to check out these tax tips: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/accountants-break-down-tips-for-working-from-home-expenses-1.5872477
· Covid has been in Canada for one year now, starting back on the 25th of January, 2020, with one case in Toronto.
· Long-terms care homes are particularly hard hit, and it continues to be so that care homes are getting outbreaks.
· From the CBC, “What we’re seeing in the long-term care facilities just demonstrates, unfortunately, years and years of neglect.” https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-canada-first-case-one-year-1.5884630
· In those early days, the public was generally told in Canada that the risk was low, and that people should not wear masks, and emphasized into March that there was no community spread.
· In late February, community transmission was evidenced in the U.S., and people returning to Canada from the U.S. began to show Covid. The halt to non-essential travel, on the land border, came on March 20.
· Canada is considering more travel restrictions, says the Canadian government.
· 143 flights have arrived in Canada in past two weeks with confirmed Covid cases. Deputy Prime Minister Freeland has assured, “We are considering the issue very, very seriously.”
· In this story, you can see where Canadians are flying during the pandemic. There sure seems to be a lot of urgent need to travel to places that happen to be warm vacation spots: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/freeland-travel-restrictions-1.5887163
· There is an 8 p.m. curfew in Montreal, and that is hard on the city’s homeless people.
· Homeless people have seen a dramatic reduction in help since the pandemic began. Shelters have to have social distancing, if they are safe to open at all.
· The province has refused to exempt homeless people from the curfew. People who break the curfew are subject to fines that start at $1,000 and can go up to $6,000. Premier Legault says making an exception for homeless people could cause people to pretend to be homeless.
· Some shelters have been forced to close altogether, because they can’t meet the requirements.
· Story: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/montreal-homeless-covid-curfew-1.5880946
· 90 “adverse events following immunization,” 0.015% of the 601,901 doses administered as of January 9th 2021.
· 63 were non-serious, 0.010%. This includes things like a skin rash.
· 27 were serious, 0.004%. In Canada, this includes a wide range of symptoms from headache to nausea to anaphylaxis.
· Learn about the Canada Adverse Events Following Immunization Surveillance System (CAEFISS) here: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/immunization/canadian-adverse-events-following-immunization-surveillance-system-caefiss.html
· Here is where the numbers are updated every Friday (but not consistently): https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/vaccine-safety/#seriousNonSerious
· Manitoba is now requiring a 14 day quarantine for non-essential travel from other parts of Canada.
· The move is being made to attempt to prevent new variants of Covid-19 from entering the province.
· Applies to air and land travel.
· Includes Manitobans who are returning to the province from elsewhere.
Sources: CBC, Toronto Star, Public Health Canada

INTERNATIONAL:
· The world is experiencing Covid-somnia – an epidemic of insomnia.
· Insomnia is now at one-quarter of the population in the UK, and at 40% in Italy and Greece.
· There is concern that this is affecting people’s health in other ways.
· Work productivity is also affected.
· A University of Ottawa study of health care workers in 55 countries and 190,000 people showed that depression, anxiety, and PTSD have all risen at least 15% since the start of the pandemic. Insomnia has risen by over 23%.
· People are advised to seek help, which many are not as people avoid medical services, or those services are unavailable. Seeking help is important, because sleep issues over time can become and ongoing sleep disorder. “Tele-health” now makes treatment more available despite the pandemic.
· Working and using screens in bed is a big part of it. The recommendation is to use your bed only as a place of sleep.
· Full article: https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20210121-the-coronasomnia-phenomenon-keeping-us-from-getting-sleep
· Vaccine delays are happening around the world.
· Canada is receiving zero doses this week.
· Health workers who were scheduled for vaccination were mostly notified by email of their cancellations.
· In Canada, 50% of doses will be delayed for up to four weeks, up to 400,000 doses delayed.
· Restoration of supply will happen in the European union before it happens in Canada. Pfizer explained this as differing contract deals but did not reveal details. Europe has also threatened to sue Pfizer for breach of contracts, and threatened to abandon Pfizer altogether as a supplier, perhaps in doing so catching the company’s attention.
· Pfizer and AstraZeneca say they will catch up to their commitments in the Spring. Pfizer says their delay is due to changing production systems, so a short-term shut down for a greater number of people vaccinated more rapidly overall. Pfizers says that they are upgrading to be able to produce 2 billion doses per year, from the current 1.3 billion. AstraZeneca has not given details.
· UPDATED: The Pfizer production facility in question is in Belgium. The European Union has threatened to ban exports of the vaccine if commitments to Europe are not met. The company is attempting to distribute the problem in the world somewhat equitably. If Europe followed through on the threat, that could mean delays for other countries would be longer, including Canada, which is served by the Belgium facility.
· The UK, having had Brexit and pulled out of the European Union, has realized that they, too, would be one of those outside countries. The UK, somewhat ironically, is now arguing against nationalism as government policy, referring to what they called “the dead end of vaccine nationalism.”
· The World Health Organization’s Covax program, to distribute vaccine around the world fairly to low-income countries, has not been affected, some good news in the mix. The Covax problem is still on schedule, as its vaccine supply is produced in India and South Korea. The program has also received a substantial boost, following US President Joe Biden’s decision to contribute $4 billion to the program.
· The CDC in the US says that allergic reactions to the vaccine are extremely rare.
· Out of 4 million given the Moderna vaccine, 10 had severe allergic reactions.
· Moderna – 2.5 per million doses have severe allergic reactions.
· Pfizer – 11.1 per million.
· Normal flu vaccine – 1.3 per million.
· Allergic reactions begin quickly, at a median of 7 and a half minutes, so people are able to be supported through it. The majority were known to have severe allergies in advance. In the US, all vaccination sites must have people trained in responding to anaphylaxis, or severe allergic reaction.
· Story: https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/22/health/moderna-severe-allergic-reactions-rare/index.html
· A doctor in Texas has been arrested for stealing vaccine.
· The doctor stole 9 doses to give to his friends and family, authorities allege.
· A man lived in the Chicago O’Hare airport for three months because he was afraid to fly. Story: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55702003
· Los Angeles has lifted its air quality limitations for cremations. An emergency order was issued so that crematoriums can catch up with the number of bodies. One person every eight minutes was dying from Covid every 8 minutes. The rate of death in LA county is double the norm from past years. 13,800 deaths in the city, 7,400 currently hospitalized, and 23% of those in intensive care.
· Over 200 incidents with plane passengers over the wearing of masks have been reported in the U.S.
· The behaviour has included refusal to wear masks once onboard, shouting abusively at flight attendants, and even physical assault.
· On Thursday, President Biden issued an executive order requiring the wearing of masks across transportation, a move welcomed by flight unions.
· The FAA, Federal Air Administration, has introduced fines up to $35,000 and potential jailing for abusing aircraft personnel, a move made in December after two flight attendants were assaulted.
· One person has been fined $15,000 after hitting the flight attendant, and grabbing her phone away from her while she was notifying the captain of the problem. Another passenger was fined $7,500, who when asked to wear a mask approached other passengers without a mask and sexually harassed a flight attendant.
· Some airlines are banning passengers from their flights who refuse to follow the rules. United Airlines has banned 615 people from flying on the airline since June, Delta Airlines has banned 700.
· There is a lot of news about variants of the virus.
· New variants have appeared in Britain, South Africa, and Brazil, all countries that have had high rates of Covid.
· So, what about vaccines? Scientists have actually expected that vaccines would still work against the variants. Moderna says that antibodies triggered by their vaccine works on new variants in lab test results. More study will be needed of people who actually have been vaccinated and who had the variant. The study so far was a small sample of eight people. Early results with the Pfizer vaccine also show that it works against variants.
· Moderna is also studying to see if there is a benefit of giving a third booster shot.
· Reports vary almost daily about if the variants are more deadly or not. The truth is that data is too limited and it is too early to really tell.
· Covid job losses have been four times worse than in the financial crisis in 2009.
· That’s according to a report by the International Labor Organization.
· The report estimates that 8.8% of the world’s work hours were eliminated. The ILO looks not only at those who have become unemployed, but those who have had reduced hours of work as well. That loss is equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs, or $3.7 trillion dollars of income.
· Press release: https://www.ilo.org/global/about-the-ilo/newsroom/news/WCMS_766949/lang--en/index.htm
· Study: COVID-19 and the world of work. Seventh edition. https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_767028.pdf
· What’s the latest with the Tokyo Olympics?
· The government of Japan wants to go ahead with the Olympics that were delayed last summer.
· The Olympics are planned to start on July 23, and the Paralympics on August 24.
· The International Olympic Committee is currently planning on proceeding, but has not made a final decision. Efforts are underway to have Olympics that are Covid safe. That might mean no audiences, athletes restricted to their accommodation areas, and each sport would have to have protocols around training and competition areas.
· “We need the vaccine to come to Africa.” A note about Grandmothers in Zimbabwe. I encourage you to read this one: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55726054
Sources: BBC, Toronto Star, International Labor Organization, CNN, Los Angeles Times.

STATS (as of end of Monday)
CANADA
· 144 new deaths. 19,238 total.
· 5,628 new cases. 753,011 total.
· 1,222 fewer active. 62,446 total.
· 849 in critical care.
· 6,706 new recovered. 671,327 total.
USA
· 1,887 new deaths. 431,392 total.
· 152,244 new cases. 25,861,597 total.
· 9,812,845 active.
· 26,259 in critical care.
· 207,426 new recovered. 15,617,360 total.
WORLD
· 2,149,496 deaths.
· 100,286,772 cases.
· 72,315,474 recovered.
Sources: www.covid-19us.live/, https://www.covid-19canada.com/

Pandemic updates provided on a voluntary basis as a community service, on Tuesdays and Fridays unless circumstances do not allow (currently dealing with an injury that limits my typing).
To provide accurate and timely information, locally, provincially, nationally and internationally, all in one place.
Feel free to share.
With love and hope,
Jaimie McEvoy, City Councillor, New Westminster, B.C.

[TV] The Supernatural Legend Continues, Now With Conspiracy Theories, Bilingual Bisexuality, and Cryptic Hashtags

The Road So Far
Less than one week after the Supernatural series finale, and I'm sorry to say that there are even more updates.
I recommend reading this post first, which I've updated many times since I posted it because the hits just kept coming, and also linked all other SPN posts that have been covered here.
Here's a summary:
A lot of fans are invested in the relationship between Dean Winchester and Castiel, two characters on Supernatural, a show that recently came to an end after 15 years. The writers and one of the actors, Jensen Ackles, were very explicit that Destiel (the ship name) was never going to happen, but fans held out hope.
Then, in the third-to-last episode, Castiel literally confessed his love to Dean, and then got whisked away by black tentacles to SuperMegaHell. And Dean just stood there, like Marco's dad from Degrassi when Marco announced he was gay while playing Hamlet. (Sadly, I can't find this clip on Youtube.)
Fans were hopeful, now that the ice was broken, that Cas and Dean would reunite in the very last episode of the series. Because how could they not? How could the writers end it there? Obviously there was more to come!
There wasn't.
The show ended anticlimactically with a bunch of montages thrown together, vampire clowns, a bad grey wig, an emo version of Wayward Son, and Dean dying of tetanus.
The actors tried to do diplomatic, NDA-friendly interviews where they said that the ending was not what they expected but they worked with what they have/were grateful for the fans and the experience/etc.
TDCC (The DeanCas Conspiracy)
But it wouldn't be an iconic queerbait without...a conspiracy theory!
Fans refused to believe that the writers who explicitly said they wouldn't make a fan favorite ship canon for 10 years would have the nerve to not make the fan favorite ship canon for the final episode.
They were so, so certain they would get more Destiel in the finale episode. All the evidence was there--the pictures, the interviews, their minds. How did this happen? How could they have been queerbaited so hard, so thoroughly? How could the writers do this to them?
Some fans Occam's Razor it and say that the writers probably had to rewrite the episode and cut a lot of stuff out, whether or not that included canon Destiel (probably not), because of COVID.
Boring! Luckily, there is a more exciting, fleshed out conspiracy theory that blames middle America, network execs, and Jared Padalecki for their heartbreak.
It goes a little something like this:
Everyone was on board to make Destiel requited and canon in the finale. The scripts were locked, the actors were ready--hell, the scenes were even filmed. But then the networks chickened out.
"But why? Why would they spend all that time and money and quarantining on Misha, only to almost completely cut him out of the finale?...It was about cold, hard cash.
...Supernatural is going off of the air. Supernatural, the CW’s cash cow for fifteen years...They need that sweet advertising revenue. And you know what show they have about to premiere? A show that could, potentially, bring with it a chunk of that SPN revenue?
Walker."
Walker, Texas Ranger was a television show originally starring Republican icon and disgraced meme Chuck Norris that is being rebooted with--heavy sigh--Jared Padalecki.
The conspiracy continues, "And if any of you know anything about the original Walker Texas Ranger, you know that the show was predominantly a show about a very heterosexual white man being very excessively heterosexual. And for SOME REASON over the years, many of the execs at the CW still seem to think that this show, Supernatural, is really attractive to a lot of middle-American white men…whom they desperately want to watch this new show with this guy from Supernatural that they already know.
Now here’s where COVID fucked us. I think Destiel was greenlit by TPTB, at least in SOME form, before COVID. But then the pandemic happened, and they panicked. They got the cut of the last two episodes and watched them in their original, probably queer form. And then, the execs at CW looked at the economy. They looked at their cash cow, about to make its journey to the great beyond. And they looked at this new little calf Walker that they were so desperately worried about. And they made a choice."
So the network, gambling their whole entire future on a remake of Walker, Texas, Ranger, "decided that it would be too risky to take the step with Destiel. They were worried about frightening off their ever-so-valuable hetero male demographic with the possibility that a traditionally masculine man in his 40s could be in love with another man in an overt way. It was homophobia mixed with greed, spun up by fear for their revenues because of COVID.
So they called in Singer, possibly Dabb, although I wouldn’t be surprised if they went straight to Singer. They told them that Destiel had to go: executive orders. And the only way to make it go in a way that removed any trace of what had been there was to rewrite what happened to Cas and cut him out from the last two episodes entirely. It was too late to reshoot anything. They had to just cut and stitch and fill with bullshit montages."
Silent No More!
Now, if don't want to read all of that (I couldn't cut bear to cut it down further) or if you are a visual learner, there are also some powerpoint presentations to help you out, because of course there are.
You might be wondering why these fans can't just take the loss and move on. Maybe the finale was going to be better, but that doesn't mean Destiel was supposed to be requited......Wait, what's this?
A couple of days after the conspiracy theories made their rounds, the Spanish dub aired, and their version of Castiel's love confession included Dean saying "I love you, too." (***@intrinsiccarp did a writeup of this that has since been deleted).
Woah, what? How could that have happened unless Destiel was supposed to be canon all this time?
Another theorist concluded that the dub "MEANS that what we saw in the usa was edited, and brazil was sent the original rough audio, and whatever audio they received for translation and recording featured a reciprocation from dean.
we know that jensen went back to the studio to do additional recording, and so it looks like they may have actually dubbed “don’t do this, cas” over something else, because on closer inspection the words don’t match his mouth. dean’s final sobs also seem to have been done in post-production, as it was rumored before this that dean had said “me too” while he was crying on the floor."
Many found Destiel's stealth canonization in the dub to be hilarious:
"the cw: hey south america, did you dub the unrequited love confession from castiel for episode 18?
south american network: …unrequited what?
the cw: you know, when cas dies after saying ‘i love you, bye dean’
south american network: yeah, ‘i love you’, then bi dean
the cw: bye, dean
south american network: bi dean
the cw: BYE, DEAN"
" supernatural has gone from a television show to full blow real life arg and i for one am fucking insane about it"
" in all my years of imagining how destiel would finally be canon, “cas confesses to dean in an oddly-cut scene that jensen admits his reaction was cut out of, dies, is never mentioned again, and then three weeks of intense speculation and a pile of evidence pointing to a cover up later, dean reciprocates in the spanish dub” never crossed my mind"
And "Nobody expects the Spanish Destiel"
Others found it to be tragic and terrible. #TheySilencedYou and #TheySilencedThem are trending on Twitter because of SPN's history of killing or neglecting their LGBTQ characters--this was the last straw! (Literally the last straw, since the show is over.)
"I don't know why people need to hear this but LGBTQ people are not here to be shock value, or to be a Shakespearean tragedy, we are real fucking people. We are not crazy for wanting to representation, and standing up when we are censored. #TheySilencedYou #TheySilencedThem"
"by silencing the few characters that represent us you silence a whole community, we deserve to be represented #TheySilencedYou #TheySilencedThem "
" they silenced castiel. they silenced dean. and they TRIED to silence us. but now, they are going to see what a powerful and furious fandom truly looks like. #TheySilencedYou "
This was accompanied by calls to unfollow the CW's SPN Twitter page to show them that...I don't know, the show is over so there's really no need to follow the show twitter anymore?
P.S. Don't tell any of the conspiracy theorists that Jared Padalecki's Walker, Texas Ranger is going to have a conservative gay brother.
UPDATE In all of this, I forgot to mention: Jensen said that a lot of Dean's reaction to Cas' confession was cut. Fans used this as fodder for the theories, speculating that there was a "lost Destiel cut" somewhere on Jensen's phone. The interpretation changed from Jensen being the one to put the kibosh on Destiel, to Jensen being cruelly silenced by shadowy network execs.
There's a lot of #TheySilencedYou fanart. I recommend checking them out. They are, ah, impassioned.
Anyway, Misha Collins took to Twitter to clarify that they were NOT silenced by the networks, there is NO "secret Destiel cut," and that the dubbed love confession was the result of a "rogue translator." He also defended the finale and said he was proud of it.
I'm sure some fans are speculating he was being held at gunpoint by the powerful CW mafia to make a statement. Mostly, though, they're turning against him for defending the finale:
"I love you misha but this makes it feel like you aren’t hearing us. conspiracy or no conspiracy, our hurt runs beyond that"
"misha really making us go against him now"
"you just invalidated every single bisexual person who sees themselves in dean and thought that, even if it was the spanish dub and not the english one, that we were finally validated with bi dean. that we weren’t imagining things. that we weren’t crazy. so thank you for that..."
Misha issued an apology for his video and simped for his fans, saying, "I'm sorry if I spoke defensively. I naively thought Cas in 15.18 was going to feel validating. But this isn't about me. I'm going to shut up and listen for a change. If it's not too much to ask, please tell me what we could have done better."
I have no idea what he hopes to achieve or why he's putting himself in the line of fire given that he is not a writer and has no creative power whatsoever and the show is over, but...eh.

Victory Square Tech (VST.CN/VSQTF)

r/CoronavirusDownunder random daily discussion thread - 16 January, 2021

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New Bill Hopes to Legalize Retail Casino Gambling in Brazil

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Brazil President Bolsonaro Courts Evangelical Supporters Prior to Entertaining Gambling... - Casino.Org News

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Story Time: Silver short squeeze